What are we doing?
We’ve devised a system to measure RANDOM OUTCOMES and track them throughout the season.
We look at every game and assign each play a VARIABLE OUTCOME FACTOR between zero and seven, with the seven point maximum intentionally corresponding to the value of a touchdown.
The majority of plays are scored a zero and not noted.
When a play is deemed LUCKY, a positive value (from one to seven) is assigned to the team that benefited from the luck while the opponent is assigned the negative version of that same number.
When we add up all the plays at the end of the game, there are two possible results:
- The LUCK for each team cancels out and yields a FACTOR of 0 for both. This is rare.
- The LUCK is positive for one team and negative for the other.
Here’s an example from Week 5 of 2013.
While every other play was pretty much a wash, there was a 7 point swing in the LUCK FACTOR early in the 2nd quarter.
Seattle attempts a 48 yard FG which is blocked and lands directly in the hands of a sprinting Delano Howell who races into the end zone. While there is certainly skill involved in the play (like all plays), it is unreasonable to think that Indianapolis drew up this play as “deflection to Howell for TD.” The most likely outcomes of the play were “3 points for Seattle” or “no points for anyone, Indy ball at its own 37.” Further down the list would have been “blocked FG, Indy recovers with better field position than if the kick had been missed.” We call this a +7 for Indianapolis.
When Indianapolis won the game by 6, it did so with a LUCK FACTOR of +8. Take luck out of the game and Seattle wins by 2. This is a TRUE OUTCOME of Seattle by 2.
Category: About TrueOutcome
