Why are we doing this and what counts as luck?
WHY ARE WE DOING THIS?
Luck is a huge part of the game. In fact, we contend that, in a close matchup, it’s the single biggest factor in determining the winner.
Every season, there are teams that start the year racking up wins but in a fashion that is unconvincing to the naked eye. We seek to quantify this phenomenon.
WAIT! WHAT IS LUCKY AND WHAT IS JUST GOOD OLD FASHIONED FOOTBALL?
Here are some (but not all) of the types of plays that we typically deem “lucky.”
- Dropped pass by open receiver that should’ve resulted in first down
- Fumble recovery by defense
- Fumble, interception, blocked kick return for TD or sizeable yardage
- Questionable spot of ball in critical situation
- Penalty away from the play or after the whistle
Watching and grading every play from every game every week is a tedious (and subjective) process, but it gives us the ability to gauge a team’s performance in a way that even the most hardcore manipulation of statistics can’t possibly provide.
HOW TO USE THIS INFORMATION
The LUCK INDEX isn’t inherently valuable when attempting to predict the outcome of future games. However, it becomes very useful when incorporated into a formula which considers the multitude of available statistical data.
With LUCK factored into the equation, we’re given a clearer picture of what a team brings to the table.
SO, IS THIS ABOUT GAMBLING?
It’s primarily about getting a theoretical grasp of who is better and who is worse than the win-loss records indicate. If you wish to take this information and plug it into a larger formula in an attempt to predict the outcomes of games, who are we to stop you? We dabble in a bit of that ourselves.
Category: About TrueOutcome
