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Why are we doing this and what counts as luck?
WHY ARE WE DOING THIS? Luck is a huge part of the game. In fact, we contend that, in a close matchup, it’s the single biggest factor in determining the winner. Every season, there are teams that start the year racking up wins but in a fashion that is unconvincing to the naked eye. We […]
What are we doing?
We’ve devised a system to measure RANDOM OUTCOMES and track them throughout the season. We look at every game and assign each play a VARIABLE OUTCOME FACTOR between zero and seven, with the seven point maximum intentionally corresponding to the value of a touchdown. The majority of plays are scored a zero and not noted. […]
But it was just a few bounces…
We’ve all been there. You finish watching your favorite NFL team lose a tight game and you can’t shake the feeling that if not for a few bounces, your boys would’ve chalked up a win. There was no fourth quarter “SportsCenter moment”– think the 2012 Seahawks/Packers “Fail Mary” or the 2013 Patriots/Panthers pass interference reversal fiasco—but rather […]
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